TRP Election Update and Analysis
November 5, 2014Yesterday’s election provided a Republican wave that out-paced most prognosticators and polling experts. At press time, Alaska (likely Republican) and Virginia (likely Democrat) remain undecided and the Louisiana Senate race (likely Republican) is headed to a runoff on Dec. 6. As of this morning, Republican’s picked up 7 seats, giving them a 52-43 advantage and control of the Senate. Two independents will caucus with Democrats—although Sen. Angus King (I-ME) has been coy about his intentions—likely bringing their numbers up to 45 seats. At this point, the most likely breakdown for the 114th Congress is a 54-46 Republican majority in the Senate. In the House, the GOP has increased their majority by 14 seats with several elections yet to be called. With 17 races yet to be called, the GOP holds an advantage of 243-175 in the lower chamber.
As the ascendant Majority Leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has indicated his intention to return to “regular order” in the Senate, including allowing more extensive consideration of floor amendments to pending legislation. In the committees, a slate of GOP chairmen will look to advance a different set of policy priorities and are expected to increase congressional oversight of the Obama Administration. In the House, several new committee leaders will take over with a stronger majority and renewed opportunity to shepherd bicameral legislation to the President’s desk (setting the stage for potential veto battles).
When it comes to enacting major legislation in the 114th Congress, Republicans need to strike a balance between demonstrating they can govern by passing moderate, bipartisan legislation and satisfying their conservative base by striking a contrast with President Obama. There could be opportunities where both of those conditions are met, such as authorizing the Keystone pipeline and repealing Obamacare’s medical device tax. For the GOP to send the President more conservative policy priorities, they may need to rely on the budget reconciliation process to overcome the threat of a filibuster.
U.S. Senate: Election Results and New Committee Chairs
With a runoff election and two races that are too-close-to-call leaving the scope of a Republican majority in the balance, it’s not too early to meet the new senators and look at who is expected to take over key committees. Below is an overview of the Senate Republican pickups, upcoming runoff elections, new senators, and projected committee leaders.
| Republicans: 52 | Undecided: 2 | Democrats: 45 |
Senate Republican Pickups: 7 (of races called)
| State | Winner | Incumbent |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | Sen. Mark Pryor (D) |
| Colorado | Cory Gardner (R) | Sen. Mark Udall (D) |
| Iowa | Joni Earnst (R) | Open: Sen. Tom Harkin’s seat |
| Montana | Steve Daines (R) | Open: Sen. Max Baucus’ seat |
| North Carolina | Thom Tillis (R) | Sen. Kay Hagan (D) |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | Open: Sen. Tim Johnson’s seat |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | Open: Sen. John Rockefeller’s seat |
Two Undecided Elections, One Runoff
| State | Republican | Democrat | Status / Runoff Date |
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan | Mark Begich | Votes Being Counted |
| Louisiana | Rep. Bill Cassidy | Sen. Mary Landrieu | December 6 |
| Virginia | Ed Gillespie | Sen. Mark Warner | Votes Being Counted |
New Senators (including pickups listed above)
| State | Winner | Notes |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | House Republican Member of the Financial Services and Foreign Affairs Committee |
| Colorado | Cory Gardner (R) | House Republican Member of the Energy and Commerce Committee |
| Georgia | David Perdue (R) | Former CEO of Dollar General |
| Iowa | Joni Earnst (R) | Former State Senator |
| Michigan | Gary Peters (D) | House Democrat sits on Financial Services Committee |
| Montana | Steve Daines (R) | House Republican sits on Transportation Committee and Homeland Security Comm. |
| North Carolina | Thom Tillis (R) | Former State House Speaker |
| Nebraska | Ben Sasse (R) | Midland University President |
| Oklahoma | James Lankford (R) | House Republican Policy Committee member who sits on both the House Budget Committee and on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | Former Montana Governor |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | House Republican Chair of Consumer Markets Subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee |
Projected Senate Committee Leaders
| Committee | Chairman | Ranking Member |
| Aging | Susan Collins (R-ME) | Bob Casey (D-PA) |
| Agriculture | Pat Roberts (R-KS) or John Boozman (R-AK) | Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) |
| Appropriations | Thad Cochran (R-MS) | Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) |
| Armed Services | John McCain (R-AZ) | Jack Reed (D-RI) |
| Budget | Jeff Sessions (R-AL) | Bernie Sanders (I-VT) or Bill Nelson (D-FL) |
| Banking | Richard Shelby (R-AL) | Sherrod Brown (D-OH) |
| Commerce | John Thune (R-SD) | Bill Nelson (D-FL) |
| Energy | Lisa Murkowski (R-AL) | Maria Cantwell (D-WA) |
| EPW | James Inhofe (R-OK) | Barbara Boxer (D-CA) |
| Finance | Orrin Hatch (R-UT) | Ron Wyden (D-OR) |
| Foreign Relations | Bob Corker (R-TN) | Bob Menendez (D-NJ) |
| HELP | Lamar Alexander (R-TN) | Patty Murray (D-WA) |
| Homeland | Ron Johnson (R-WI) or Rob Portman (R-OH) | Tom Carper (D-DL) |
| Judiciary | Chuck Grassley (R-IA) | Pat Leahy (D-VT) |
| Small Business | James Risch (R-ID) | Maria Cantwell (D-WA) or Ben Cardin (D-MD) |
| Veterans | Richard Burr (R-NC) | Sherrod Brown (D-OH) |
House of Representatives: Election Results and New Committee Chairs
Republicans will expand their majority in the House by between 14 and 15 seats – a few elections have yet to be called including California’s 16. The race between Jim Costa (D) and Johnny Tacherra (R) is too close to call as of now even with 100 percent of precincts reporting
| Republicans: 243 | Undecided: 17 | Democrats: 175 |
| State | Winner | Incumbent |
| Maine – 2 | Bruce Poliquin | Emily Cain |
| Nevada – 4 | Cresent Hardy | Steve Horsford |
| Texas – 23 | Will Hurd | Pete Gallego |
| Georgia – 12 | Rick Allen | John Barrow |
| New York – 1 | Lee Zeldin | Timothy Bishop |
| Iowa -1 | Rod Blum | Pat Murphy |
| Illinois – 12 | Mike Bost | Bill Enyart |
| Florida – 26 | Carlos Curbelo | Joe Garcia |
| New York – 21 | Elise Stefanik | Aaron Woolf |
| West Virginia – 3 | Evan Jenkins | Nick J. Rahall |
| Illinois – 10 | Robert Dold | Brad Schneider |
| New Hampshire – 1 | Frank Guinta | Carol Shea-Porter |
| North Carolina – 7 | David Rouzer | Jonathan Barfield |
| California – 7 | Doug Ose | Ami Bera |
| New York – 24 | John Katko | Daniel Maffei |
| Utah – 4 | Mia Love | Doug Owens |
House Democratic Pickups
| State | Winner | Incumbent |
| Florida – 2 | Gwen Graham | Steve Southerland |
| Nebraska – 2 | Brad Ashford | Lee Terry |
Projected House Committee Chairs
| Committee | Chairman | Ranking Member |
| Appropriations | Hal Rogers (R-KY) | Nita Lowey (D-NY) |
| Armed Services | Mac Thornberry (R-TX) | Adam Smith (D-WA) |
| Budget | Tom Price (R-GA) | Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) |
| Ed. and Workforce | John Kline (R-MN) (needs a waiver to stay) | Bobby Scott (D-VV), Ruben Hinojosa (D-TX) |
| Energy & Commerce | Fred Upton (R-MI) | Anna Eshoo (D-CA), Frank Pallone (D-NJ) |
| Financial Services | Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) | Maxine Waters (D-CA) |
| Homeland Security | Mike McCaul (R-TX) | Bennie Thompson (D-MS) |
| Natural Resources | Rob Bishop (R-UT) | Peter DeFazio (D-OR) |
| Oversight | John Mica (R-FL), Jason Chaffetz (R-UT), Mike Turner (R-OH), Jim Jordan (R-OH) | Elijah Cummings (D-MD) |
| Small Business | Steve Chabot (R-OH) | Nydia Velazquez (D-NY) |
| Transportation | Bill Shuster (R-PA) | Nick Rahall (D-WV) |
| Veterans | Jeff Miller (R-FL) or Doug Lamborn (R-CO) | Corrine Brown (D-FL) |
| Ways and Means | Paul Ryan (R-WI) | Sander Levin (D-MI) |
Legislative Projections
Lame Duck
Unlike several recent lame duck sessions that saw compromises reached on major legislative items, it’s possible that extending the continuing resolution (CR) could be the only notable accomplishment ahead of 2015. Aspiring deals are emerging on issues including tax extenders, Ebola, and Syria, but there’s no certainty as to how Senate Republicans will choose to cooperate on these measures with a pending majority in the 114th Congress. With the government funding bill expiring in early December, lawmakers will have little time to negotiate how federal funds should be spent for the rest of the fiscal year. And without the reelection campaigns looming—as was the case with September’s CR passage—a renewed appetite for brinksmanship becomes all the more likely.
The leaders of the House and Senate Appropriations committees have indicated that they want to shepherd a $1.1 trillion omnibus package—containing all 12 spending bills—to enactment by mid-December. But some Republican senators would prefer to enact another stopgap spending bill, which could give the party more say in determining the shape of the omnibus next year. Because overall spending levels were established in the two-year budget deal passed last December, lame-duck spending battles would be over the agency and program-level details. House appropriators drafted 11 of the 12 bills, and the House has passed seven. The Senate drafted eight of the 12 bills, but debated none of them after gridlocking over amendments.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden has said his top priority for the lame-duck session is a two-year deal for extending expired tax provisions. The differences between the House and Senate about making some tax breaks permanent could complicate achieving a bipartisan agreement. House Republicans have yet to determine whether to run with an omnibus tax bill or reauthorize the provisions individually or in smaller packages, but it’s clear that the GOP doesn’t favor extending all of the tax provisions. A few lawmakers have been in discussions on a post-election deal that would lock in permanent tax cuts for major corporations and low-income families. Such a deal could involve sweeteners for both Republicans and Democrats, potentially including a permanent tax break for corporate research and development, and expansions of the child tax credit, earned income tax credit and higher education tax credit.
A few other issues that could be considered during the lame-duck session include:
- Defense Authorization – The Senate Armed Services Committee and its House counterpart have directed their staffs to start working on a compromise between a fiscal 2015 defense policy bill passed by the House and the defense measure that was approved by Senate Armed Services.
- Intelligence, Cyberterrorism – Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Dianne Feinstein said she wants to complete legislation that would reauthorize intelligence programs. Her panel has approved legislation, part of which is classified, covering programs within 16 agencies for fiscal 2015.
- Terrorism Insurance (TRIA) – Commercial property owners and insurers, including large companies with bylaws requiring such coverage, are pressing Congress to continue the government’s financial backstop for terrorism risk insurance that’s set to expire Dec. 31. Without an extension, insurers say such coverage will become expensive or unavailable as underwriters withdraw from the market. Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) has committed to getting TRIA through the lame duck – the only question at this point is: how long is the extension?
- Satellite Television – Expiring at the end of the year is a law that lets satellite TV-carriers beam network TV programming to viewers in areas that aren’t reached by broadcast signals without getting copyright permission. Earlier this week, the Senate Commerce Committee unanimously passed a five-year authorization
- Sanctions, Trade – House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce of California said he wants lame-duck enactment of a sanctions bill against countries accepting oil from ISIS; renewal of a bill granting trade benefits to sub-Saharan African exports; legislation focused the Overseas Private Investment Corp. power grid projects; and a bill that would seek to apply trade pressure to release an American soldier held in Mexico.
- Internet Tax Freedom Act (ITFA) / Marketplace Fairness Act (MFA) – Senate Majority Leader Reid and Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) committed to combining the controversial Internet Sales Tax bill with the wildly popular Internet Tax Freedom Act. With House Leadership cool to the concept of considering major issues for the first time in the Lame Duck, it is unclear whether Reid and Durbin will be able to keep these issues together or will have to jettison MFA to keep ITFA from sinking under the weight of the more controversial Internet Sales Tax bill.
First Few Months of the 114th Congress
Senate Republican members we have spoken to are encouraged from early conversations with President Obama that the changeover to Republican control in the Senate will mean less gridlock versus continued gridlock. At the very least, it is a good sign that Senate Republicans are reaching out (and were before the election) to lay the foundation for a productive 114th session. In further signs that the White House may be willing to approach the negotiating table next year, Vice President Joe Biden said earlier this week that the White House stands ready to find common ground with the GOP, and are “ready to compromise.” But only time will tell whether any major legislative agreements can actually be achieved.
In the Senate, Majority Leader McConnell will likely face some of the same challenges that House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has experienced in wrangling what can be a fractured Republican caucus. Conservatives are relishing the idea of controlling both chambers of Congress, and will be eager to pursue an agenda focused on combating the Obama administration. Tea party firebrand Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has already said that the Senate should focus on a string of hearings on President Barack Obama “looking at the abuse of power, the executive abuse, the regulatory abuse, the lawlessness that sadly has pervaded this administration.” Leadership in both chambers will be challenged with appeasing this portion of their constituency while advancing an agenda showing that their party can govern while in power.
While there will likely be disagreements within the GOP on how to legislate while controlling both chambers of Congress, the slim majority that Republicans hold in the Senate will ultimately require them to focus on measures that can achieve bipartisan support. In the very early months, it is likely that Republicans will pass legislation approving the Keystone pipeline, expanding trade promotion authority, and repealing parts of the Affordable Care Act. A legislative response to an executive order on immigration will also most likely be considered. Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), a former budget director, recently said that goals under a Republican controlled Senate should include lowering the 35 percent corporate tax rate, enhancing the president's ability to make trade agreements, approving the Keystone XL pipeline and passing what he called “responsible” budget bills.
Reconciliation in the Senate
Beyond a handful of Republican priorities than can also attract votes from congressional Democrats, a feature of the Budget Act known as, “reconciliation” could be the most important legislative tool for Republicans in the 114th Congress. A reconciliation bill could be created by “reconciliation instructions” included in a new budget. The reconciliation process is intended as a way for Congress—at the end of the year—to tweak spending and/or revenue legislation that had been passed earlier that year to take account of economic developments. The fast-track feature of the process means that the Senate’s normal safeguards for the minority would not apply – and since debate would be limited, supermajorities to end debate would be unnecessary and the filibuster would be irrelevant.
With that in mind: it is possible that Republicans could try and pass a budget containing reconciliation instructions (which would only require a simple majority to pass), which could provide an opportunity to pass reconciliation legislation with only 50 votes. This tactic is only allowed for those measures whose preponderant effect is to change spending or revenue levels (policies with only an incidental impact on the budget may not qualify). If a provision doesn’t produce a change in outlays or revenue, it’s subject to a point of order that can be waived only with 60 votes. It is generally expected that any reconciliation measure would include instructions on policies such as tax reform, tax extenders, medical device tax, employer and employee ACA mandate, and ACA tax subsidy provisions.
Senator McConnell has been straightforward about his willingness to use reconciliation to frustrate the administration and advance legislation that could not meet the 60-vote threshold to pass through regular order. In June, he said privately that Republicans would use the budget process “to go after them on healthcare, on financial services, on the Environmental Protection Agency, across the board.” But if Republicans attempts to prod the executive branch solely through budgetary maneuvering, the next two years could amount to an antagonistic affair. Now that the GOP will be controlling both chambers of Congress, they risk taking the brunt of responsibility for the perception of a gridlocked Congress. However, we believe that instead, the next two years may actually be far more productive than the previous four, if Republicans used the threat of their budgetary power to forge compromises with congressional Democrats and the White House.
Impact on President Obama’s Nominees
With Republicans holding a majority in the Senate, it will be even more difficult to advance President Obama’s executive and judicial nominees – a process that hasn’t exactly been easy even with Democrats controlling the upper chamber. Key nominations on the horizon include a replacement for retiring Attorney General Eric Holder, and a Surgeon General, whose nomination stalled in the Senate earlier this year. Although Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg—81 years old—has said she is staying put, it remains plausible that Obama could be faced with a third chance to place a new Justice on the Court. Republicans are unlikely to support any of the President’s potential nominees. President Obama will also need to fill numerous other executive branch, ambassador and federal judicial nominations in his final two years in office – all of which require Senate confirmation.